The first was a report from Forrester projecting interactive marketing spend in 2016, which they estimate will reach $77 billion. While the headline focused on the fact that interactive media will catch-up to television media spend by that date, an equally interesting set of figures provide a glimpse into a very different digital media world in 4 years. The report predicts that search’s share of digital media spend will shrink, as marketers disproportionately increase their investments in more sophisticated display media and really rev up their mobile media spend.

The second was an AdAge Digital piece on how veteran digital shops (most of which started in the late 90′s) were changing (and expanding) their business models. The article focused on the big search agencies – iCrossing, 360i, and iProspect – and how they’re diversifying into other areas of digital advertising. Obviously they’re looking at the same data as Forrester, and as they look to grow, they are seeing greener pastures in areas such as digital content, display advertising, and online video.

The article also talks about how shops like AKQA are expanding their focus from digital design and development into digital media (search, display, etc).

Two trends I see for the future:

• Less room for and a resulting fewer number of specialist digital shops (i.e. the search marketing agencies, or the digital content shops)
• The growing prominence of a new breed of large, integrated digital agencies, accentuated by an increased difficulty for big traditional agencies to keep up with the pace of change in digital

FastCompany.com has a nice story on the new platform coming out next week called Online Campaign Ratings, or OCR for short.

In one sense, OCR sounds like a major improvement over the Nielsen box, a measurement tool I have always questioned (BTW, how many people do you know with a Nielsen box? How about people using Facebook?). There is no doubt that adding demographic data to digital media planning and tracking tools will be extremely valuable. And yes, translating the Web measurement into a metric that “old school” media planners understand will likely help move some small amount of large branding media budgets from TV to the Web (specifically digital video).

However, the folks over at Digiday are asking if applying a traditional media measurement tool is actually a good thing for the world of digital media? This is a very valid question, and one I think about a lot. Specifically, is the GRP the best way to measure media reach, or the best available tool to measure traditional media at the time it was developed?

The question we need to be asking is whether the online GRP, or OCR in this case, will make digital media planning more effective for advertisers and improve the business of digital publishing?

In the article, Shar refers to another recent Forrester report that boldly recommends that companies should reduce their paid ad budgets by 10%, investing those resources in customer engagement – in the form of owned media like content, apps and earned media such as social media programs / outreach.

I think this is right on and a great starting point for companies and marketers looking to evolve with the changing media and consumer landscape. I firmly believe that companies should be moving away from an emphasis on paid media (which is generally “one-way” in nature) to owned and earned media. However, I am not naive and realize that it will take time to shift organizations used to doing things a certain way for a long time (i.e. focusing on big paid ad campaigns) to shift to a more balanced model where owned and earned media are equals at the table.

In many ways, for this to happen, companies need to begin evolving their marketing departments and those working in them. As I regularly tell our clients who work in marketing, they are increasingly in the content business. Creating content (and managing communities, etc.) requires very different skillsets than writing marketing briefs, reviewing ad copy and approving media plans.

Revolutionary change doesn’t happen overnight, particularly at large corporations. But change in 10% increments is a great starting point for the type of evolution that is necessary within marketing organizations.

More specifically, the conference is centered around the idea of a new discipline and role at advertising agencies –  the “Creative Technologist.” The Creative Technologist appears to be a hybrid of a developer/programmer/CTO and a designer/Creative Director.

Is the 4A’s ahead of a trend coming to the ad business? Or is this a futile path towards creating more silos within ad agencies? Maybe this is just a lot of hype from big agencies and their trade group trying to “catch up” and stay relevant in a quickly changing digital world?

What do you think?

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THE 4A’S TO HOST ADVERTISING INDUSTRY’S FIRST CREATIVE TECHNOLOGY (“CREATETECH”) CONFERENCE

The advertising industry is no longer solely devoted to making advertising. Transformative ideas—with technology as an integral component—are changing the way to do business. And a broad group of minds—the creative technologists—are facilitating these changes. The 4A’s, in launching the industry’s first creative technology conference, “CreateTech,” is acknowledging the confluence of creative and technology, and the critical role played by creative technologists in the current advertising landscape.

“CreateTech,” a one-day conference to be held Friday, May 20 (8:30am-5:30pm), at the Sentry Midtown Conference Center (730 Third Avenue, New York), will explore the challenges facing creative technologists, bring together prominent practitioners currently working in the agency world, and establish an ongoing community of engagement in these issues. The inaugural conference will highlight client/agency collaboration from a technology perspective, explore some emerging marketing technologies and celebrate an increasingly important community in advertising.

The 4A’s is also establishing a new Creative Technology Committee to further the work of the conference with agencies and clients. The committee will be co-chaired by Scott Prindle, SVP, Executive Technology Director, CP+B and Trevor O’Brien, Creative Technology Director, McKinney.

Featured speakers include, J. P. Rangaswammi, Chief Scientist, Salesforce.com; Scott Roen, Vice President, Marketing, American Express; Glen Fellman, Group Creative Director and Trevor O’Brien, McKinney; Gary Koelling, Director of Emerging Platforms at Best Buy; Marcel Kornblum, Creative Technologist,  Stink Digital; Brian Skahan, VP/Creative Technology Director, Crispin Porter + Bogusky; Nick Parish, North American Editor at Contagious Magazine and Nancy Hill, President-CEO, 4A’s.

Select session topics include: “Agency Technology/Creative Methodologies and Technique”; “Technology/Creative Collaboration and Team Organization”; “Technology, Common Ground: Brands, Agencies, Specialists, Entrepreneurs”, “Digital Retail” and “Emerging Capabilities: APIs, Augmented Reality and more.”

“Establishing a conference like ‘CreateTech’ will bring together the senior managing digital technology community in one place,” said Chick Foxgrover, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer.   “There are brilliant innovative thinkers in agencies today and we are eager for them to participate, contribute and connect.’”

He basically identified 6 criteria that can let a client know if an ad agency is for real when they say they do digital:

• They have a track record of active participation in digital conferences (such as SXSW, OMMA, and Ad:Tech)
• They have director-level or higher technology leader on staff (not an IT guy)
• They have full-time, in-house development resources (front-end and back-end developers on staff, not outsourced)
• They have digital-only clients or large Website development projects under their belt
• In addition to Account Planners, they have the digital equivalent, such as User Experience leads
• They have analytics staff (dedicated) and have invested in marketing analytics software tools

I whole-heartedly agree with Mr. Wiener’s assessment, and would take it a step further. True digital advertising capabilities require:

• In-house digital creative production capabilities (e.g. Flash programmers)
• Information Architecture and/or Content Strategy disciplines within their agency
• Client social media program expertise (concepting, developing and managing social media initiatives for clients) – and no, creating a Facebook page doesn’t cut it.

I could make a longer, more detailed list of capabilities I feel are critical to truly be digital, but I think these cover it broadly.

The premise of his argument is that social media is not a vertical channel – that social media is “a horizontal set of technologies that enable sharing across individuals and brands.” As he deftly describes, social media “can and should be incorporated across virtually all marketing activities.”

I completely agree with his assessment and thesis. However, I would go farther and say that social media should be integrated across more business functions than just marketing.

Social media is critical for customer service. Social media is fundamental for research and development. Social media is a powerful HR platform.

While most companies have understandably first ventured into social media focused on marketing, to think that social media should be “owned” by marketing departments, and their agencies, is simply underestimating and misunderstanding the fundamentals of this technology.

Thanks to Facebook, I’m now like that friend that everyone has – the one that remembers everyone’s birthdays. Whenever I log into Facebook I get those oh-so-handy reminders of my xxx friends current and upcoming birthdays.

Even better, I can just write “Happy Birthday” on their wall and be done with this. No more feeling guilty about not buying a birthday card at the supermarket (not that I ever did that before, again, except for my significant other, mom, etc.).

But again, I know a lot of people who would send birthday cards to everyone (especially to all the kids in the family). Will there be any people like this in the future when millennials grow up?

That’s a fascinating question – one that will determine the future of an entire industry. While thinking about this, I did a search and came across an article about Hallmark and their bullishness in light of these big social media-driven changes. The article mentions that Hallmark is definitely incorporating technology into their business model, but paper greeting cards sales continue to be the biggest source of revenue for the company.

My take is two-fold:

1) the people who remember everyone’s birthdays and send cards to everyone will not go away (if anything, they’ll grow with tools like Facebook to help remind them of all their friends’ birthday) – their behavior simply evolve based on technology.

2) the greeting card “product” will need to evolve to remain relevant to new consumer behavior and modes of communication

Seems like a perfect opening for a new disruptive product/service to address the core value proposition / benefit derived from paper greeting cards.

During a panel discussion I made the point that social media transcends marketing for most organizations, and is (or will be) an integral part of most organizations’ operations and core business strategy. I gave the example of the Federal government, where I am seeing management consulting firms like Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) taking the lead, not marketing or advertising firms. In fact, I would argue that consulting firms like BAH are in the best position to address social media and how to best harness it.

The weakness consulting firms have is that they do not have “in the trenches” experience developing and managing earned media programs – which is at the heart of any effect social media program.

PR and traditional agencies lack the technical chops to really handle the “implementation” and technical production (think social apps, etc.) side of social media. At least traditional ad agencies understand and are capable of developing the big ideas that should be the foundation of any great social media program.

The knock on digital agencies is that they get too caught up on the technology and production side, and can’t see the forest for the trees…

Bottom line is that no one can effectively lay claim to social media, except maybe savvy companies like BestBuy and jetBlue that are doing just fine without a lot of outside consultants…

If you haven’t heard, Twitter announced on Monday 4/12 that they will be rolling out their first paid advertising platform to begin monetizing their mammoth micromedia platform. The service is being called “Promoted Tweets”, and will initially be launched as promotional tweets that show up on Twitter.com search results. It’s the first step in a multi-stage roll-out, so there is definitely more to come, including the possibility of “Promoted Tweets” becoming a free tweet, as described by the NYTimes.com.

This is an exciting development to say the least. But don’t think that “Promoted Tweets” or whatever it evolves into will be the next Google AdWords. In fact, according to Augie Ray of Forrester, there are many risks associated with inapproriate use of paid Twitter ads, including public backlash against perceived “bully pulpit” tactics by brands.

Augie summarizes what this all means for the commercial use of Twitter by astutely noting that “this may be paid media, but it is a few drops of paid media in a sea of earned media.”

In the mean time, the godfather of social CRM is Paul Greenberg.  To get yourself up to speed on the basics, you should read his two posts on his CRM Forecast 2010.  The posts are here at Part I and Part II.

Another cool thing about Wharton BizTech, was that I got to meet MC Hammer, who was the morning keynote speaker.  He is surprisingly sharp when it comes to speaking about social media and the future of marketing, and has a pretty amazing fanbase on Twitter.  Follow him at @MCHammer.